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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2019-03-20T08:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-03-20T08:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/14568/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-03-24T20:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-03-23T18:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 20/1800 UTC
Radial velocity (km/s): 575 km/s
Longitude (deg): 28W
Latitude (deg): 8N
Half-angular width (deg): 36 degs 

Notes: Several CME fits were attempted in the CAT tool using Lasco C3/C2 and Stereo A difference imagery. Earth-directed estimated speeds ranged between 500 and 650 km/s, but settled on 575 km/s as the mean. ENLIL ensemble output suggests arrival time between 23/0900 UTC and 24/0000 UTC. However, the background solar wind speed in ENLIL is significantly faster than observations at present, which suggests the CME may slow more than ENLIL suggests. This reduces confidence in the forecast arrival time, and may be later than the figure given here.  
Space weather advisor: Andrew Sibley

Lead Time: 91.63 hour(s)
Difference: 26.72 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2019-03-21T01:05Z

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